Democrats Cultivate the Vote for 2012

Democratic strategists see a developing trend that could make marijuana reform the key issue in the 2012 election.

Taking a page from the Republican handbook, the Dems believe that getting liberal MMJ initiatives on the ballot will turn out the youth vote, much like the Republicans used the issue of banning gay marriage in the 2004 election to bring home a win for Bush lite.

Polls are being conducted in Colorado and Nevada, states that will be crucial to Obama’s re-election efforts, to test the power of marijuana initiatives to drive voter turnout. Ballot initiatives don’t usually affect turnout, but strategists believe that the right initiatives can target certain groups of voters enough to make a difference in close elections. Bush won Ohio by 2% which decided the election.

Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, surmised that MMJ initiatives could have a coattail effect for Democratic candidates. She found that voter interest jumped from 25% to 38% when marijuana initiatives were on the ballot.

If a lesson was learned from the 2010 election, where the Democratic Party lost 63 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate nationwide, it was that marijuana reform draws liberal voters to the polls. Prop 19, which would have legalized marijuana for persons 21 years or older, brought out the youth vote which was essential to the Democratic win. While Prop 19 was ultimately defeated by a vote of 53.6% to 46.2%, Democrats easily won every major race, including the governorship and both senate seats, although they were out-spent by their opponents by margins as large as 6 to 1.

MMJ Activists will likely have the support of liberal philanthropist, Peter Lewis of Progressive Insurance Companies. Mr. Lewis was quoted in The Wall Street Journal, “Changing marijuana laws is emerging as one of the leading national issues in the coming years…change is inevitable and my priority is to make that change positive.”

Unfortunately, it seems that California Democrats are failing to heed the advice of their own strategists, as support for medical marijuana in the legislature has slipped dramatically during the past two years. The mood in Sacramento has changed to the point that Democratic legislators have introduced bills that would force many dispensaries to close and give cities the right to decide if they can be established at all.

Activists have long awaited the promised memo from the Department of Justice that would clarify the federal position on medical marijuana. They had hoped that the administration would emphatically declare that they would not prosecute persons using medical marijuana in states that had legalized its use with a doctor’s consent. After several delays, it was issued June 30 – the day after Obama’s first press conference in several months – presumably to avoid having to answer reporters’ questions on the subject.

Their hopes were shattered when they read the text of the memo released by Deputy U.S. Attorney General James Cole. The memo threatened enforcement against “Persons who are in the business of cultivating, selling or distributing marijuana and those who facilitate such activities” including local and state officials. The memo went on to say, “State laws or local ordinances are not a defense to civil or criminal enforcement of federal law.”

Banks and landlords have also been warned that they face fines, sanctions and prosecution if they engage with businesses involved with marijuana. Cynergy Data, who processes most credit card transactions for MMJ businesses, announced that effective midnight, July 6, they will cease to provide service to the industry due to the pressure being exerted on them by this administration.

Every move by our government seems to be designed to force the industry underground. Large cash transactions invite crime and corruption. It seems more productive to have a transparent paper trail. Legislators need to craft a clear and comprehensive plan that allows dispensaries and cultivators to function like any other business throughout the state.

The message is loud and clear. If Democrats want to turn out their base in 2012, they would be well advised to get aboard the train. Medical marijuana could be the uniting issue for Democrats much like God, Gays & Guns have become for the Republicans. Otherwise, we may see a replay of the “shellacking” they got in 2010.

Patricia Smith

Grass Roots Solutions

psmith@grassrootssolutions.org